Quarterly Investment Review for Insurers: Q3-2025

Policy is easing into a world of sticky cross-winds—slowing growth pockets, firm-but-moderating inflation abroad, and elevated geopolitical risk—so we expect a “barbell” market: high-quality bonds regaining their ballast role while large-cap growth and selective non-US exposures continue to lead, with gold/commodities acting as shock absorbers when headlines flare.

The Fed’s September cut met a cooling confidence backdrop, pointing to policy easing into uncertainty. Businesses and consumers remain cost-sensitive as tariffs and longer-run price pressures linger. Labor signals softened at the margin while recession odds stayed balanced rather than acute. Corporate guidance continued to emphasize cost control and select capital spending.