2023 Year-End Recap & Early 2024 Expectations
for Insurers & Risk Pools
Alton Cogert, CFA, CPA, CAIA, FDP, CGMA, President & CEO, Strategic Asset Alliance
Dan Smereck, Managing Director & Principal, Strategic Asset Alliance
Alton and Dan take a look back at the highlights and challenges insurers faced in the financial markets to close 2023, while also sharing some of their 2024 expectations that may help insurers & risk pools navigate the markets, as they look to achieve their financial & investment goals.
- The “higher for longer” interest rate narrative that gained broader traction across markets for August, September, and October folded like a cheap lawn chair as economic data and the Fed’s rhetoric in early November intimated peak rates were behind us. As a result, bond and equity markets rallied sharply during Nov/Dec on the expectations that rates would begin to head downward sharply in 2024.
- With lower rate expectations along the short-end of the yield curve, especially, organizations may want to review their cash positions for longer-term deployment as many built sizeable positions over the 2022/2023.
- Despite the potential for lots of “noise” in 2024 (e.g. US Election, On-going geopolitical issues, etc.), the proceeds from any maturing bond purchased before 12/31/2021 will see reinvestment yields that are multiples higher for the same risk thereby driving earned investment income higher throughout 2024.
- In the end, Fed policy decisions will remain data-dependent and have ample opportunities to positively or negatively surprise investors throughout 2024.
- Always consider the relationship between short-term pain (i.e., mark-to market risk) and expected long-term gain that is tolerable to your organization’s enterprise goals and objectives.